Deal or no deal? That’s what financial markets and businesses are waiting to learn.
A weekend of productive trade talks in Geneva between the United States and China resulted in a “deal,” said Jamieson Greer, the United States Trade Representative and one of the main negotiators for the Trump administration. His Chinese counterpart expressed optimism, but with a less emphatic take.
He Lifeng, China’s vice premier for economic policy, who led the talks for the Chinese, said the discussions had been constructive and that an “important consensus” had been reached. Without providing details, he said the two sides had agreed to establish a “consultation mechanism,” but he seemed to stop short of declaring a done deal.
That difference in initial framing over what two days of negotiations had achieved underlined the sensitivities around trade between the world’s two largest economies.
During a news briefing in Switzerland on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the talks had resulted in “substantial progress.” Mr. Greer said the two countries had reached an “agreement” quickly and that “perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought.”
Shortly thereafter, the White House issued a statement, entitled “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva,” that offered no new details. When asked about the White House’s statement, Chinese officials said the outcome of the meetings would be reflected in a joint statement on Monday by the two countries. They did not elaborate but said it would be good news for the world.
In Asia, financial markets were mostly higher, as was trading in S&P 500 futures that indicate how stocks could respond in the morning in New York.
In a research note on Monday, Nomura Securities said that while the apparent progress on trade talks had helped to lift market sentiment, it had also raised the risk of disappointment if tariffs are not significantly reduced.
The negotiations were the first significant attempt to ease the tensions that flared this year after President Trump imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports. Mr. Trump imposed a minimum tariff of 145 percent on Chinese imports, and China countered with an import duty on American products of 125 percent. The tariffs have brought trade between the two countries to a halt and served as a drag on the global economy.
In the weeks before the meetings in Geneva, the two sides also differed on whether they were talking. The White House repeatedly said it was speaking with Chinese officials, while Beijing denied that such talks were taking place.
Beijing had adopted a tough stance since Mr. Trump imposed his punitive tariffs. Last month, Mao Ning, a senior Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, posted on X a video of a speech that Mao Zedong made during the Korean War — known in China as the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea — in which he declared, “No matter how long this war is going to last, we’ll never yield.”
China has carefully framed its involvement in the Geneva negotiations not as a concession to Mr. Trump’s tariffs, but as a necessary step to avoid further escalation. China was acting on behalf of the global economy by defending the “shared interests of the wider international community,” according to a commentary in the state-run China Daily on Saturday.
The commentary also said that American businesses and consumers had appealed to China to engage in sustained dialogue.
Chinese factories are feeling the sting of the trade slowdown. Orders for export to the United States are already slumping, and many American importers are pausing shipments in the hopes that Beijing and Washington can reach an agreement resulting in lower tariffs.
In China, news of progress in the trade discussions was not prominently featured by government-controlled media on Monday. On the website of the state-run Xinhua News Agency, the story about the talks was below headlines about a state visit to Russia by Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, and Beijing’s efforts to strengthen communication and coordination with Latin American countries in the face of America’s tariff campaign.
Mr. Trump has vacillated between talking tough on China and seemingly extending an olive branch by suggesting that he would be open to lowering the tariffs to 80 percent. He hailed the talks as a breakthrough.
“A very good meeting today with China, in Switzerland,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday night. “Many things discussed, much agreed to. A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner.”
Christopher Buckley contributed reporting from Taipei, Taiwan.
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