Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford: 5 key questions for Saturday’s undisputed championship fight

LAS VEGAS — Saturday night’s super middleweight undisputed fight between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Terence Crawford is edging closer and closer — but that doesn’t necessarily mean we are getting any nearer knowing how this fight, aired worldwide on Netflix, will play out.

A quick scan of opinions on the flight from London to Las Vegas produced an array of results ranging from “Crawford is the more skilled fighter, and ‘Canelo’ hasn’t looked great recently” from seat 34C, to the cliched “A good biggun’ will always beat a good littlen’” from an eavesdropper two rows ahead.

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Now, I am not claiming this to be an example of one of the most forensic focus groups of the modern age, but these contradictions are exactly what you want from a so-called mega-fight like this.

It hasn’t always been this way. When this fight was made official at the start of the summer, there were plenty of raised eyebrows surrounding its legitimacy — in some people’s eyes, Crawford was seen as a downgrade on the natural fight to be made at 168 pounds, taking the place of the in-form David Benavidez Jr.

“Canelo” opened up as a big favorite with the bookmakers, but recent images of “Bud” growing into a super middleweight’s frame has tightened the opinions of those who have profits to lose. We’re not quite at the pick ‘em level of a 50/50 split, but you now have every right to call someone a liar if they claim to know, with chest, how Saturday night’s main event will unfold inside Allegiant Stadium.

So, before you flip-flop between your prediction for this undisputed super middleweight title fight, let’s take a look at some of the questions where the answers could prove pivotal to the eventual outcome.

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1. Is ‘Canelo’ Alvarez in decline?

There is more to this question than honing in on Alvarez’s recent snooze-fest with William Scull.

“Canelo” struggled with the elusive nature of the Cuban in his Riyadh debut, but the fact that he’s failed to stop any of his opponents for the past four years may be more telling. Has he been happy switching on cruise control, or is he missing that killer instinct that saw him run through a who’s who of super middleweight opponents in a flawless 2021?

No fighter is immune to the toll that 67 fights, 520 rounds and 21 years as a professional takes on the body — Father Time will always remain undefeated — but “Canelo” hasn’t exactly gone life and death with killers throughout his decade of domination.

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Even his trilogy with Gennady Golovkin was more mentally and emotionally exhausting than taking years off the shelf life of either fighter, and the lack of damage the Mexican has suffered since can’t be ignored.

But “Canelo” has slowed down — this can’t be denied. He has begun to fade late in fights and is becoming more and more uncomfortable with those fighters who are adept in lateral movement. But he’ll be relying on Saturday being the type of fight where experience and size outweigh any physical regression.

2. How will Crawford’s chin hold up against a powerful 168-pounder?

Crawford doesn’t know how to lose as a professional fighter, notching up a perfect 41 victories in 41 attempts. But he’s never been hit flush by a man the size and weight of “Canelo” Alvarez.

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It’s impossible to predict the durability of Crawford’s whiskers up at this unknown weight, and there will be more than one occasion in the contest where “Bud” will have to wear some of Alvarez’s vicious single-punch attacks.

Crawford hasn’t tasted the canvas as a professional, but that’s not to say he hasn’t been troubled.

Lithuanian Egidijus Kavaliauskas buckled “Bud’s” legs in the third round in their 2019 bout, before succumbing to the Nebraskan in the ninth. Subsequent fights against Kell Brook and Shawn Porter forced Crawford’s hand to end the argument early, after being posed some tough early questions.

You can’t train a chin, and you certainly can’t warn a chin that’s about to jump up 14 pounds in weight. “Canelo” has always hit hard and accurately, and early indications of how Crawford reacts will dictate how both game plans materialize.

3. Is this weight jump too much for Crawford?

Boxing history isn’t exactly littered with successful tales of fighters jumping up two weight classes — especially in one go.

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Incremental climbs by greats such as Sugar Ray Robinson, Alexis Arguello, Oscar De La Hoya, Roberto Duran and even eight-weight king Manny Pacquiao ended in defeat when the ceiling got too high, and Crawford’s double-hop from super welterweight to super middleweight is a mark of his determination to break further boundaries in the sport.

Crawford’s speed, lateral movement and switch-hitting are his biggest attributes, and are all aspects of his game that could slow down considerably with the timber added to his frame.

A pit stop for the former super lightweight and undisputed welterweight king in August 2024 up at super welterweight — beating Israil Madrimov over 12 competitive rounds — was potentially a warning sign as to how a bigger Crawford won’t mean a better Crawford.

Crawford will be banking on the size disparity simply acting as a footnote on a history-making evening. It’s not normal to find success climbing this quickly and high in weight, but Crawford isn’t a normal fighter.

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4. How will ‘Canelo’ and Crawford’s styles match up?

The disparity in natural weight will impact how each fighter is able to carry out their differing game plans, making the stylistic contradiction between “Canelo” and Crawford fascinating.

Alvarez’s methodical high-guard press has overwhelmed many fighters before, and Crawford will need to lean heavily on his tactical nous and slick counter-punching to negate the natural advantage “Canelo” will enjoy.

If Crawford allows the Mexican to cut off the ring with ease, and fire damaging shots to the arms and body of Crawford, then the challenger will be in for a long night in Las Vegas

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But Crawford’s fighting instinct to control the distance and dictate the pace could prove the perfect kryptonite to a dominant game plan that “Canelo” has perfected over the years. He’s been frustrated in defeat to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Dmitry Bivol before, and it can happen again.

5. Will Alvarez-Crawford be remembered as a classic, or a fudged mismatch?

Aside from discussing the outcome of Alvarez vs. Crawford, another question highly debated is the legitimacy of this being a “mega-fight.”

Saudi paymaster Turki Alalshikh has dipped deep into his pockets and bankrolled this event, and is therefore relying on it being one of those memorable Las Vegas fight nights that historians eventually roll off their tongue.

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Critics cite the weight disparity as the main reason this fight could be considered a fudged together mismatch; a fight that nobody really clambered for, which landed out of intrigue rather than necessity.

But as they say: The proof will be in the pudding. Whether or not this fight is a gimmick will be determined by Saturday’s result, and by then, the world will have tuned in and both fighters will have received checks for more money than they could ever dream of spending.