Week 10 was largely a dull week in the early slate, but things picked up by the afternoon and evening. As far as the College Football Playoff hunt is concerned, Oklahoma State’s upset of Oklahoma in potentially the final Bedlam game for a while dropped the Sooners out of contention.
Off the field, the Michigan sign-stealing scandal may come to a head soon if the Big Ten decides to discipline coach Jim Harbaugh. One thing the league will be careful not to do is take away any opportunity from Michigan players to complete their season. They are not involved in this scandal and the league will not want to do anything to punishes them.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an Upset of the Week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Any major conference team that hasn’t lost twice yet is technically still a CFP candidate, the lowest of which is No. 11 Louisville.
Purdue’s lovely backdoor cover at Michigan cost me a winning week. I was 1-2 for the week and now 16-11 overall. The upset special is on a hot streak, however, after hitting for the third straight week. That pick is now 3-6 straight up and 5-4 ATS for the season.
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Week 11 picks
For the second week in a row, the opening total of the Iowa game opened below the Ferentz Line (30). Last week, betters foolishly bet it higher. It opened at 29 this week, but the public is getting smarter and betting it down. Still, an Iowa game has not come within a touchdown of this total in a month. Pick: Under 28
There was a time earlier this season when many thought that Maryland could be considered a clear No. 4 in the Big Ten. Instead, the Terrapins went into the tank after a 5-0 start. They were competitive at Ohio State for a bit but lost and have not won since. Maryland has lost at home to Illinois, at Northwestern and got destroyed by Penn State. Nebraska is coming off of a stinker of a loss at Michigan State, but Michigan is the only opponent to win in Lincoln this season. Pick: Nebraska +2
Fresno State at San Jose State (-1)
When I saw this line, I had to check to see if I missed a memo on Fresno State injuries or something. I feel like I’m walking into a trap because I am sure the wrong team is favored. The Bulldogs are a game back of Air Force in the Mountain West and 8-1 overall. The Spartans have yet to beat a team that is above .500 this season, home or away, and there is no reason to believe the first time will be this week. Pick: Fresno State +1
Upset of the Week
Iowa State (-8) at BYU
BYU is a tough place to play. If you are not a team that is used to the elevation, it can have an impact. Also, the Cougars are usually pretty good, which helps too. This year, BYU is not quite up to its usual standard but not too bad, either. However, even in a relatively down year, it is still undefeated at home. I like that trend to continue. Pick: BYU +8
Other CFP candidates
- Michigan State at No. 1 Ohio State (O/U 47) Pick: Over
- No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia (-20) Pick: Ole Miss
- No. 3 Michigan (-10) at No. 10 Penn State Pick: Penn State
- Miami at No. 4 Florida State (-14.5) Pick: Florida State
- No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington (-9.5) Pick: Washington
- USC at No. 6 Oregon (O/U 73.5) Pick: Over
- No. 7 Texas (-10) at TCU Pick: Texas
- No. 8 Alabama (-10.5) at Kentucky Pick: Alabama
- Virginia at No. 11 Louisville (-20.5) Pick: Louisville
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 11, and which underdogs will win outright? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit over the past seven-plus seasons — and find out.