Louisville vs. Virginia odds, spread, line: 2023 college football picks, Week 11 predictions by proven model

The 11th-ranked Louisville Cardinals are looking to stay on track for a shot at the ACC title when they host the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday night. Louisville (8-1, 5-1) enters the college football Week 11 matchup on a clear path toward a showdown with No. 4 Florida State in next month’s ACC Championship Game. The Cardinals come off two convincing victories following their stunning loss to Pittsburgh. UVA (2-7, 1-4) is looking to play spoiler but comes in on a two-game losing streak. The Cardinals took a 24-17 road victory in last year’s meeting, but the Cavaliers won 34-33 in Louisville the previous season.

Kickoff at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Cardinals are 20.5-point favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus Virginia vs. Louisville odds, and the over/under for total points is set at 50.5. Before making any Louisville vs. Virginia picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Virginia vs. Louisville and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Louisville vs. Virginia: 

  • Virginia vs. Louisville spread: Cardinals -20.5
  • Virginia vs. Louisville over/under: 50.5 points
  • Virginia vs. Louisville money line: Cavaliers +811, Cardinals -1419
  • UVA: Is 5-3 ATS in its past eight games as a road underdog.
  • LOU: Is 10-1 ATS as the home team since the start of 2022.
  • Virginia vs. Louisville picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Virginia vs. Louisville live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Louisville can cover

The Cardinals and FSU are the only teams in the top four in the conference in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Louisville scores 32.9 points per game (32nd in FBS) and allows 16.3 points (T-13). UVA scores 23.1 (94th) and gives up 32.4 (116th), allowing at least 24 in every game. The Cavaliers also yield 180 rushing yards per game (115th), so the Cardinals could run wild. Louisville rushed for 231 yards last week, getting 146 from Isaac Guerendo.

Jawhar Jordan, the team’s top rusher with 881 yards, was limited last week but had 57 yards and a TD. He averages 7.1 per carry and should be healthier. Quarterback Jack Plummer has thrown for 2,159 yards and 14 TDs, six of those to Jamari Thrash, who has 771 receiving yards. The Cardinals gave the ball away three times in the loss to Pitt but are plus-5 in turnover margin, compared to minus-6 for Virginia. Louisville has outscored its past two opponents 57-3. See which team to pick here.

Why Virginia can cover

The Cavaliers proved against North Carolina that they can pull off a big upset, beating the then-No. 10 Tar Heels 31-27 on the road. Then they went to Miami and took the Hurricanes to overtime before losing 29-26. Quarterback Tony Muskett, who led those two victories, is uncertain with an ankle injury, but Anthony Colandrea has started four games this season. The freshman has thrown for at least 200 yards and rushed for at least 30 in his past two starts.

Whichever quarterback is available will rely heavily on Malik Washington, who is third in FBS with 1,044 receiving yards. He has topped 100 in seven of the past eight games. Fellow receiver Malachi Fields had five catches for 65 yards in last week’s loss to Georgia Tech and has 44 receptions this season. Running backs Perris Jones and Kobe Pace have combined for 892 total yards and six TDs. Virginia has 10 takeaways and Louisville has turned it over 11 times. See which team to pick here.

How to make Virginia vs. Louisville picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 56 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine

So who wins Louisville vs. Virginia, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out. 

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