September is a historically rough month for Apple shares. Here’s what could happen next
September is typically a rough month for Apple — and it’s a toss-up as to whether this year could be any different. Apple is expected to announce new iPhones and Apple Watch models on Sept. 9 during a press event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. The tech giant typically unveils these new models at its fall launches ahead of the holiday shopping season. Apple’s share price tends to move higher as investors’ excitement builds up ahead of its product announcements, according to a FactSet analysis. But the stock’s lowest average returns occur during the month of the launches. Apple shares averaged a September loss of 3.5% over the past 10 years. That pullback comes after gaining an average of 6.5% in July and 4.8% in August, the analysis shows. Apple gained 3.1% in August, and it has jumped nearly 19% this year. Morgan Stanley analysts think this year’s announcement from Apple could result in better stock performance than history indicates. That is partly because the upcoming event — which will likely be focused on an expected Apple Intelligence integration into the iPhone 16 model — could fuel demand for the company’s highly anticipated artificial intelligence-related advancements . “Historically, the iPhone launch event has been a sell-the-news event, with Apple slightly underperforming the market the day of the iPhone launch, and then only modestly outperforming the market in the 3 months following the event,” analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a Thursday note. “We don’t necessarily expect the market to behave differently when Apple introduces the iPhone 16 on September 9th, but we do see the potential for Apple to perform better than historical seasonality into year-end as the introduction of the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence helps to unlock pent-up demand,” he added. Woodring said Apple shares have historically outperformed when the company’s product replacement cycles shorten. Indeed, he forecasts a contraction in iPhone replacement cycles through fiscal 2026. Apple is still a “top pick” for Morgan Stanley, and Woodring said he remains bullish on the tech company’s opportunity to drive a multiyear product cycle refresh and to accelerate iPhone replacement cycles. He has an overweight rating on the stock with a $273 price target, which suggests 19.2% potential upside from Friday’s close. UBS analyst David Vogt, on the other hand, has a neutral rating on shares with a $190 price target, indicating shares could see a 17% decrease over the next year. He said in a Tuesday note that the month of August typically sees the lowest consumer purchases of iPhone models, adding that there is “risk building into the Sept. launch.” Apple’s iPhones accounted for about 46% of the company’s total sales in the fiscal third quarter . “If Aug iPhone units come in around 14M, down ~3% [month-over-month], in-line with recent seasonality, absent channel fill, Sept-24 sell-through would have to come in at 22.6M to hit our estimate, up ~20% YoY, a high bar in our view given Apple Intelligence is in beta and not available in Europe,” the analyst said.
